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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. Under an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still