Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
