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At first, the former US president seemed to adopt a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "serious consequences" last August in case Vladimir Putin continued hindering ceasefire negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted substantial penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, that was drafted by US and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, he has seemingly returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Benefiting Aggression

This proposal would in practice favor Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the plan actually undermine that very sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business past, the former president continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent goal to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the democratic government that Putin's deepening autocracy withholds them.

Border Giveaways

Although freezing in place the currently divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would force the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been failed to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian military defenses critically weakened.

The area is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv in case he subsequently decide to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a step that would enable future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their current large number troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative imposes no similar limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's efforts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Any extremist doctrine and actions must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this point, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by holding votes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the plan makes Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in law its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has breached similar treaties in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should the international community have confidence in Russia now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the proposal promises a "strong coordinated defense action" in case Russia renew its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics vary from vague to concerning. The plan would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the security presence, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from rebuilding his reduced forces, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Concern

Another supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. Yet unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not