War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.
Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.
A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict
The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.
Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.
"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker TĂĽrk stated.
Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.
Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.
Logistical Nightmare and Pressure
Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr TĂĽrk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.
The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.
All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.
A Restricted Poll
The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.
There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.
A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.
Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.
International Condemnation
"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.
Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.
The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".
"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.
Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".
